人口數(shù)量和消費需求分析翻譯-中英對照
我國以占世界9%的耕地、6%的水資源、4%的森林、1.8%的石油、0.7%的天然氣、不足9%的鐵礦石、不足5%的銅礦和不足2%的鋁土礦，養(yǎng)活著占世界22%的人口；大多數(shù)礦產(chǎn)資源人均占有量不到世界平均水平的一半，我國占有的煤、油、天然氣人均資源只及世界人均水平的55%、11%和4%。未來人口的持續(xù)增長和經(jīng)濟消費能力的提高，進一步加劇資源環(huán)境壓力。
預(yù)計2010年，全國人口總量將達到13.6億人；2020年達到14.5億人左右。城市化水平將進一步提高，預(yù)計到2010年，全國城鎮(zhèn)化率提高到47％，到2020年，全國城鎮(zhèn)化水平達55-58％。隨著經(jīng)濟、人口和城市化的快速發(fā)展，我國未來資源消費需求將進一步提升。據(jù)有關(guān)部門預(yù)測，2006-2010年全國每年需要增加供水能力300億立方米，生產(chǎn)生活供水能力需要增加43%；到2010年，全國城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)用地的年均增長速度為5.5％，到2020年，年均增長速度為2.25％～2.9％；2010年能源需求約為26.1億噸標準煤，到2020年，能源需求約為40億噸標準煤；2010年和2020年的人均直接和間接消費糧食的數(shù)量分別為405千克和410千克，2010年的糧食總需求量將達到5.5億噸（原糧），2020年的糧食總需求量約為5.9億噸（原糧）。土地資源、水資源、能源需求的增長將進一步增加對區(qū)域生態(tài)環(huán)境的壓力，造成農(nóng)田、森林、濕地等生態(tài)服務(wù)價值高的土地被占用，區(qū)域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)失衡。糧食需求增長一方面導(dǎo)致大量不適宜開發(fā)的土地被開墾為農(nóng)田，另一方面可能導(dǎo)致一些重要的生態(tài)用地如湖泊、灘涂被占用。能源消耗的大量增長將進一步增加溫室氣體的排放，并加劇環(huán)境污染。目前，中國的二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量分別居世界第一位和第二位。
3、國際履約任務(wù)還非常艱巨
國際公約影響力逐步顯現(xiàn)。隨著經(jīng)濟全球化發(fā)展，我國環(huán)境保護國際協(xié)作進一步加強，十七大報告提出 “環(huán)保上互相幫助、協(xié)力推進，共同呵護人類賴以生存的地球家園”。履行國際公約開始成為深刻影響我國生態(tài)環(huán)境保護的重要因素之一，我國是生物多樣性保護公約、聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約、聯(lián)合國防治荒漠化公約和濕地公約的締約國，且均為最早締約國之一，國際公約對于我國生態(tài)環(huán)境保護工作的影響力日益凸現(xiàn)。
表2-1 我國加入的主要生態(tài)保護國際公約及其宗旨
主要生態(tài)保護國際公約 宗旨
生物多樣性保護公約 制定并實施對瀕危物種施行保護的法律，擴大生物物種的自然保護區(qū)，努力恢復(fù)已遭到損害的動植物種群，提高公眾對自然保護和維護生物資源必要性的認識。
聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約 旨在控制大氣中二氧化碳、甲烷和其他造成“溫室效應(yīng)”的氣體的排放，將溫室氣體的濃度穩(wěn)定在使氣候系統(tǒng)免遭破壞的水平上。
聯(lián)合國防治荒漠化公約 在發(fā)生嚴重干旱和／或荒漠化的國家，尤其是在非洲，防治荒漠化，緩解干旱影響，以期協(xié)助受影響的國家和地區(qū)實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
濕地公約 保護和合理利用全球濕地
履約能力尚有差距。在未來很長一段時期內(nèi)，我國仍將處于社會主義初級階段，國家面臨巨大的發(fā)展壓力的同時還將面國際公約的約束，履約工作還在不斷努力和探索，我國生態(tài)保護現(xiàn)狀和生態(tài)環(huán)境保護管理體制、能力與國際公約要求差距還很大，未來履約的任務(wù)非常艱巨。
表2-2 我國對于主要國際公約的履約現(xiàn)狀分析
國際公約 履約要求 現(xiàn)狀差距 潛在影響
生物多樣性保護公約 實現(xiàn)生物多樣性各個層次，包括生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、物種和基因的保護目標 相關(guān)的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃與行動制定后難以實施；社會重視程度不高，投入較低，組織協(xié)調(diào)能力薄弱。 對我國具有較強的約束力；為我國制定戰(zhàn)略和規(guī)劃起到了支持和指導(dǎo)作用，逐步為物種及遺傳資源的國際交易提供公平合理的機制和平臺;為發(fā)展中國家的生物物種資源保護和利用技術(shù)開發(fā)提供了支持和幫助的渠道，便于我國獲得先進國家的資金和技術(shù)支持。
聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約 目前，我國為非附錄I國家，但有義務(wù)編制國家溫室氣體排放源和匯的清單，制定適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化的國家戰(zhàn)略，在社會、經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境政策中考慮到氣候變化 我國溫室氣體排放量較大，CO2排放量世界第二，長期不減排將影響國際地位；由于能源結(jié)構(gòu)不合理和技術(shù)支撐薄弱，節(jié)能減排的成本較大，可能會影響經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。 通過CDM機制，及其他的渠道，能夠引入國際先進技術(shù)和資金，促進我國的生態(tài)環(huán)境保護；但是，同時如果近期就承擔(dān)減排義務(wù)，將對我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)影響，從而影響我國的生態(tài)環(huán)境保護的政府投入
聯(lián)合國防治荒漠化公約 控制荒漠化速度和面積 基礎(chǔ)較差，區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡 是對我國極為有利的國際公約。我國荒漠化問題受到國際上的高度重視，將促進我國引入國際的先進技術(shù)和投資。
濕地公約 保護和合理利用濕地 仍然存在結(jié)構(gòu)/管理/投資問題 加入公約起到了很好的促進作用，中國濕地保護受到了廣泛重視，收到了很好的環(huán)境效益
Population and consumer demand continue to increase
China feeds 22% of the world population with its 9% arable land, 6% water sources, 4% forests, 1.8% oil, 0.7% natural gas, less than 9% iron ore, less than 5% copper ore and less than 2% bauxite of the world volume; the per capita occupancy of most mineral resources is less than half of the world average level and the per capita possession of coal, oil and natural gas is only 55%, 11% and 4% of the world average level respectively. Continuous growth of population and increase of economic consumption capacity in the further will further exacerbate the pressure on resources and environment.
It is estimated that, the total population in China will reach 1.36 billion by 2010 and 1.45 billion by 2020. Urbanization level will further increase and it is expected that the national urbanization ratio will rise to 47％ by 2010 and 55-58％ by 2020. With the rapid development of economy, population and urbanization, China’s resources consumption demand in future will further enhance. According to forecasts from relevant departments, from 2006 to 2010, the water supply capacity needs to increase by 30 billion cubic meters every year and the water supply capacity for production and living needs to increase by 43%; the average annual growth rate of land for urban construction in China will get to 5.5％in 2010 and 2.25％-2.9％ in 2020; energy sources demand will be about 2.61 billion tons of standard coal in 2010 and about 4 billion tons of standard coal in 2020; the per capita direct and indirect consumption of grain in 2010 and 2020 will be 405kg and 410kg respectively; the total grain demand will reach 550 million tons (raw grain) in 2010 and about 590 million tons (raw grain) in 2020. Demand growth of land resources, water resources and energy resources will further increase the pressure on the regional ecological environment, resulting in occupancy of such land with high ecological service value as farmlands, forests and wetlands and imbalance regional ecosystem. Grain demand growth on the one hand will cause a lot of land unsuitable for exploitation to be reclaimed into farmland and on the other hand could lead to some important ecological land such as lakes and beaches to be occupied. Large growth of energy consumption will further increase emissions of greenhouse gases and aggravate environmental pollution. At present, the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide in China are in the first and second places in the world respectively.
3. International performance task is still very arduous
Influence of international conventions emerges gradually. With the development of economic globalization, China has further strengthened international collaboration for environmental protection. It was proposed in the Report to the Seventeenth National Congress that “On environmental protection, we should help each other and work together in promotion and common love of the earth, the only home for mankind.” Performance of international conventions has become one of the important factors which have a profound impact on the ecological and environmental protection in China. China is a contracting party and also one of the earliest contracting parties of Convention on Biological Diversity, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and Convention on Wetlands. Influence of international conventions on the ecological and environmental protection in China has become increasingly apparent.
Table 2-1 Main International Conventions on
Ecological Protection Acceded to by China and Their Tenets
Main International Conventions on
Ecological Protection Tenets
Convention on Biological Diversity To legislate and implement laws for protection of the endangered species, expand nature reserves for biological species, restore the damaged flora and fauna species and enhance the public’s awareness of the necessity in protection of nature and preservation of biological resources.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change For the purpose of controlling the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases and stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level against sabotage of the climate system.
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification To combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in the countries experiencing serious drought and/or desertification, particularly in Africa, with a view to assisting the affected countries and regions to achieve sustainable development.
Convention on Wetlands To protect and reasonably utilize global wetlands
There is a gap in performance capability. For a long period in the future, China will remain in the primary stage of socialism; the country will not only be faced with tremendous development pressure but also be bound by international conventions; performance is still in ongoing efforts and exploration; ecological protection status as well as system and capacity of ecological environment protection and management are quite far away from the requirements specified in international conventions; so performance task in the future is very difficult.
Table 2-2 Analysis on Status of China’s Performance of Main International Conventions
International Convention Performance Requirements Status and Gap Potential Influences
Convention on Biological Diversity To achieve the goals on protection of biodiversity at all levels, including ecosystems, species and genes Related strategic plans and actions are difficult to implement after enactment; there is an inadequate social emphasis, a low input and a weak capacity in organization and coordination. It makes a strong binding on China; plays a role of support and guidance for China’s preparation of strategies and plans and gradually provides a fair and reasonable mechanism and platform for international transaction of the species and genetic resources; provides support and assistance channels for technology development on protection and utilization of biological species resources in developing countries; facilitates China to obtain financial and technological supports from advanced countries.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change At present, China is a non-Annex I country, but it also has the obligations to prepare a list of emission sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases in China, develop national strategies adapting to and mitigating climate change, and take into account climate changes in the social, economic and environmental policies The emission of greenhouse gases in China is larger. The emission of CO2 is the second in world and China’s international status will be affected if the emission doesn’t decrease for a long time; due to the unreasonable energy structure and weak, technical support, the costs of energy conservation and emission reduction is larger, which may affect economic development. Through CDM mechanism and other channels, international advanced technologies and funds will be introduced into China to promote the protection of ecological environment; at the same time, however, if China is committed to emission reduction obligations recently, it will affect China’s economic development and thus affect the government input for ecological environment protection in China.
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification To control the speed and size of desertification Poor foundation and uneven regional development It is an extremely favorable international convention to China. The problem of desertification in China is attached great importance to by the international community. It will promote the introduction of international advanced technologies and investments into China.
Convention on Wetlands To protect and reasonably utilize wetlands Problems in structure / management / investment still exist.
Acceding to the Convention has played a very good role in promoting extensive attention on wetland protection in China, enabling China to receive a very good environmental benefit.
2013.4.15